Winter champions. An achievement usually scoffed at, but one of cherished significance for AC Milan. Fair to say that no one could have predicted the meteoric rise and near infallibility of the team, given that at the same stage of last season, Milan were languishing in mid-table (12th). A little over a year later, the script has remarkably changed.
What possibly qualifies as more astonishing than Milan’s phenomenal turnaround is the apathetic involvement of Milan’s right-wingers in the side’s dominance and ascension. Samu Castillejo and Alexis Saelemaekers, the club’s go-to men for the right-wing, have jointly contributed to under eight percent of the team’s goals in Serie A this season.
Goal-scoring woes
Castillejo and Saelemaekers have clocked similar game time with only 92 minutes of football separating them. Head Coach Stefano Pioli’s tends to prefer Saelemaekers, having handed him nearly twice as many starts in comparison to the Spaniard.
A damning indictment of their goal-scoring prowess can be contextualized by the fact that Theo Hernandez has scored more goals than both of them combined. Their goals p90 (per 90 minutes) is painfully low (Castillejo 0.2, Saelemaekers 0.3) when compared to Serie A’s most potent winger, Lorenzo Insigne (0.71). To make matters worse, neither of the two have registered an assist in Serie A thus far.
The visible hustle combined with hysterical technique often leads to Saelemaekers being stereotyped as a defensive winger. Though this perception is not inaccurate, he possesses a clear advantage over Castillejo from the xG+xA p90 perspective. Saelemaekers has shown improvement as an attacking threat from last season with an increase in xG+xA p90 (0.35, up from 0.22), while Castillejo has worryingly declined (0.19, down from 0.46). Saelemaekers also has a conversion rate (18.18%) nearly twice that of Samu Castillejo, despite averaging a comparable number of shots p90 (Castillejo 1.5, Saelemaekers 1.4) and recording lower shot accuracy (Castillejo 40%, Saelemaekers 27.27%)
Facilitating play
The difference in technical quality in the two wingers is rather alarming. The absence of predatory instincts in front of the goal creates an obligation for these players to participate in facilitating play.
Regular viewers of Milan’s matches will acknowledge that Saelemaekers is a severely limited player. He controls the ball poorly nearly four times more than Castillejo (2.4 vs 0.6 per game), relies more on back passes (10.4 vs 8.7 p90) and records a mediocre passing accuracy (76.85% vs 90.98) – despite attempting an equal number of passes p90 (33.9 vs 34.7).
His numbers aren’t poor because he attempts a greater number of low percentage passes. On the contrary, Saelemaekers attempts more short passes p90 (20.4 vs 15.2) and Castillejo is prone to making longer passes p90 (4.22 vs 2.63). Castillejo also demonstrates higher involvement in constructing attacks by completing more passes p90 in the opposition half (22.2 vs 18.3).
As stated earlier, neither of the players have registered an assist in the league in 2020/21. They cross ever so hopefully but to no effect. Both attempt a resemblant number of crosses p90 (Castillejo 2.5, Saelemaekers 2.32), but Saelemaekers does so with relatively better accuracy (24% vs 17.65%), probably because he is deployed as a traditional right-winger, whereas Castillejo performs the role of an inverted winger.
Both typically occupy similar areas on the pitch, as evidenced by the heat maps below. Distance from the goal might be directly proportional to their efficacy in the box. Whether they are given identical tactical instructions or their ineptness in the final third pushes them wider and deeper down the pitch is anyone’s guess.
Defensive contribution
If Castillejo looks like the superior attacker, Saelemaekers is unquestionably the finer defender. While they make a relatively equal number of pressures p90 (Castillejo 7.03, Saelemaekers 7.37), Saelemaekers excels as a tackler. He eclipses Castillejo in the middle (1.25 vs 0.31 tackles p90) and the final third (1.37 vs 0.21 tackles p90). He also plays the role of the sweeper in midfield with aplomb (7.16 v 5.14 loose balls recovered p90).
An important point of distinction is that Milan earn more points per game with Saelemaekers on the pitch (2.57 vs 2.36). Pioli’s decision to put Saelemaekers on the team sheet ahead of his Spanish comrade also stems from the likelihood of Milan scoring more with him on the pitch (Expected goals on the pitch p90 of 2.13 vs 1.84), even though he offers precious little going forward.
The future
Milan’s primary objective for the season has arguably changed from finishing top four to winning the league title. The recently concluded transfer moves of Soualiho Meïté and Mario Mandžukić (with Fikayo Tomori in the works) reflects the club’s ambition.
The management has also recognized the necessity of improving Milan’s right-wing. Talks of Florian Thauvin continue to gain momentum. The Frenchman is nearing the end of his contract at Olympique de Marseille and offers a substantial upgrade over Castillejo and Saelemaekers.
The two wingers will be playing for their futures at Milan and they have half a season to prove their worth. The balance currently appears to be tipped in Saelemaekers’ favour and is unlikely to change unless Castillejo dramatically improves as an attacking option for Milan in their pursuit for silverware this season.
