The current average is 1.64 points per game, meaning an increase of 0.59 points per match is required to reach 70 points (assuming that would be enough): Conceição is facing a daunting challenge.
It could be worse, it could be raining... The cult scene from Young Frankenstein could easily be reenacted at Milanello in a modern key, as Murphy's Law can sometimes be relentless. After the tragic night in Turin, the Rossoneri are crying out in pain—rubbing salt into open wounds has precisely this effect. And, week after week, it becomes increasingly difficult to hold onto any hope that by the end of May, the season will have had any real meaning. Individual mistakes have now gone beyond good and evil, the Fab Four aren't working, the leading actors have turned into fourth-rate extras, the coach growls but isn't getting much of a response, and in any case, the team's play is not flowing in proportion to its average quality.
This is the context in which Milan is forced to operate in its attempt to secure fourth place. Yes, the sky over Milanello is unleashing rain and lightning because the league table isn’t shifting as it should—especially when other teams slip up—and fifth place, unless Italian teams pull off heroics or rivals collapse, will not grant a Champions League spot but rather a Europa League berth.
What is the target for Milan’s fourth place?
The minimum goal is 70 points. So, let's do some simple calculations.
So far, Milan has accumulated 41 points, averaging 1.64 per match—an alarmingly insufficient rate for Champions League qualification. To put things into perspective, before the defeat in Turin, Conceição's Milan had been averaging 2 points per game, which, in theoretical terms, would be enough for a top-four finish. However, given the earlier setbacks, even that wouldn't suffice.
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Some projections? First, let’s state that if Milan were to maintain its current average, it would finish with 62 points—a total that in recent years has been on the borderline between sixth and seventh place, meaning either Europa League or Conference League qualification. If, instead, the team were to average 2 points per game over the remaining 13 matches, the final tally would be 67 points—still not enough for fourth place.
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The calculation is straightforward (barring unforeseen variables in the standings, such as the title race affecting the required points threshold): to reach the bare minimum target of 70 points, Milan needs 29 more points, equating to an average of 2.23 per game. Since the current rate is 1.64, that means an increase of 0.59 per match.
In practical terms: they must win 10 out of the last 13 matches, or 9 with 3 draws, and so on. Objectively, it is a very difficult task.
The question must therefore be put directly to the coach: how can such an improvement be achieved?
For the record, against the teams they still need to play, Conceicao’s AC Milan team had an average of 1.63 points in the first round. In other words, almost the same as now. The same average that makes the Champions League remain a distant dream.
Many are hoping that Milan returns to the top including former legendary full-back, Serginho.
The retired Brazilian footballer had the following statements to say about Milan’s chances ahead of the match against Bologna:
“The match vs Bologna? For Milan, it's like a final: a victory would reopen the race for fourth place. As for what would happen in the event of a defeat, I'd rather not think about it. I'm not saying it would be over, but remaining eight points behind Juventus would make a comeback complicated."
What will be needed? Serginho commented:
"A winning mentality and love for the Rossoneri jersey. We won a lot because we were a great group: we understood the importance of giving everything we had inside for a historic and glorious club like Milan. The same thing needs to happen now,” he told La Gazzetta dello Sport newspaper.
Milan will have to do much more than that right now because they have also lost against Lazio last night, and the Champions League dream seems like a distant mirage.
