A heavy defeat, yet another in this season. The loss at the Diego Armando Maradona stadium against Napoli has—most likely—put the final seal on Milan's Champions League ambitions under Sergio Conceição. As things stand, the Rossoneri are languishing in ninth place in the league, a full nine points behind Vincenzo Italiano's Bologna, who sit fourth—the last spot that grants access to Europe's elite competition. With only eight matchdays left in Serie A, the situation is dire for the Rossoneri club, which faces the prospect of missing out on European football entirely next season. Given their record in direct clashes this season—having won only one league match against top competitors—the looming encounters against Roma, Bologna, Atalanta, and Fiorentina make this scenario increasingly likely with each passing week.
While Milan’s minimum goal of securing a Champions League spot now seems out of reach, a door to European football remains slightly open. The new objective is to at least qualify for any European competition next season to mitigate the sporting and financial consequences of missing out on the Champions League. Securing a place in either the Europa League or the Conference League has thus become the club's main mission in this final stretch of the season. However, qualification is anything but guaranteed, with Milan trailing Roma (sixth) and the Fiorentina-Lazio duo (seventh) by five points.
So, how can they make it?
There are two possible routes: winning as many matches as possible until the end of the league campaign or going all-in on the Coppa Italia.
Milan all in for the Coppa Italia trophy?
Truth be told, as difficult as it may be, winning the domestic cup—last lifted by the Rossoneri in 2003—appears to be the club's most straightforward path to securing European football next season. That’s why Conceição’s team is ready to go all-in on Wednesday night's clash at San Siro, the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals. April 2 marks the date of the Rossoneri’s first showdown before the decisive return leg on April 23, which will determine who advances to the final on May 14. The Coppa Italia has now become the club’s primary target in what has been, to put it mildly, a lackluster season. Winning the trophy is crucial for three reasons: first, it would secure a second piece of silverware this season and a direct spot in the Europa League group stage; second, it would allow Milan to extend their dominance in derby matches while simultaneously hindering Inter’s pursuit of another historic Treble; and third, it would guarantee participation in next season’s Supercoppa Italiana—last won by the Rossoneri, as relayed via Calciomercato.com.
What happens if Milan wins the Coppa Italia?
In this scenario, it is essential to understand Serie A’s qualification rules for European competitions. The top four teams qualify directly for the Champions League, while the fifth-place team—along with the Coppa Italia winner—secures a spot in the Europa League. The sixth-placed team qualifies for the Conference League. However, if the Coppa Italia winner has already qualified for the Champions League or Europa League through the league standings—as has been the case in recent years—the sixth-placed team is promoted to the Europa League, and the seventh-place finisher takes the Conference League spot.
If, however, Milan—or even Empoli, for that matter—fails to finish in the top six but wins the Coppa Italia, the biggest loser in this scenario would be the seventh-placed team, which would be left out of European football. These are scenarios to consider as the season heads toward an intense conclusion, though they won’t be enough to salvage Milan’s disastrous campaign or secure Sergio Conceição’s place on the Rossoneri bench for the 2025/26 season.
