Tonight, Inter plays for the Treble and to soften the bitterness of the defeat in Bologna at Easter in the league.
This derby is a nuisance, squeezed between the anxieties of the league – sharing first place with Napoli – and the first leg of the Champions League semifinals against Barcelona.
Inter is under pressure like never before, perhaps in the four years with Simone Inzaghi as coach. Two years ago, in 2023, Napoli was about to win the scudetto with arms raised, alone, and Inter could focus on the Champions League, treat themselves to a great final against Manchester City, and win the Coppa Italia as partial compensation. This year, Inter wants everything – as Inzaghi said – and tonight, everything could disappear. The national cup is essential for the Treble, even if it represents its weak link. Today, Inter has a lot to lose. If they advance, they will have done their duty. If they are eliminated, they will suffer a setback, the Treble dream will fade, and the blow will coincide with the fall in Bologna. Two slip-ups in a few days would increase doubts and nerves, and the “all or nothing” slogan – which Inzaghi doesn’t like – would no longer make sense. At that point, Inter would have to aim for the “something” option – scudetto, Champions League, Club World Cup – against the nightmare of “zero titles.”
For Milan, the Coppa Italia, if won, will heal little, giving a consolation ticket to the Europa League, the Champions League’s little sister. The Rossoneri's season has been and will remain semi-failure, with their current ninth place in the league being humiliating. It’s understandable for the scudetto, considering the team never truly competed for it, but it’s unforgivable for a club like Milan to be out of the Champions League. If you want to count, you have to be there, also to support a sustainable economy. The Coppa Italia, if won, will be a band-aid and a sedative, allowing Sergio Conceiçao to say goodbye with two titles, he has already won the Supercoppa, and to claim he did his part, a personal consolation. This derby is crucial for the fans because Milan can break Inter’s Treble ambitions. It’s not insignificant, the rivalry is strong, but the “mors tua vita mea” is a race to the bottom; Milan fans had different expectations. Tonight’s derby could either decorate the year or make it disastrous. If it goes well, they would face the final, 99.99% of the time against Bologna, a tough opponent, hard-fought in the league, as shown by the defeat at Dall’Ara. If it goes badly, the collapse would be total and humiliating, as described by La Gazzetta dello Sport in this morning's print edition.
Inter - Milan | The tactic...
Fifth derby of the season, and the balance of the previous four is surprising: two Milan wins, one in the league and one in the Supercoppa in Riyadh, and two draws, one in Serie A and the other in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals. This small Milan of this year is the weak point of the great Inter, which wants everything. After all, in September, the Milan derby came after an impressive run of Inter victories, seven wins in the eight previous encounters. This will be the first derby with tactical setups not too dissimilar. A three-man defense for Inter, as per Inzaghi’s classic 3-5-2. A three-man defense for Milan, as Conceiçao has recently shifted to a 3-4-3. The new Milan system worked in Udine, a great 4-0 win, and stumbled at the first serious test, at Easter against Atalanta, a 0-1 loss at San Siro. Tonight, Inter will show us where the truth lies regarding Milan’s 3-4-3. At first glance, it’s clear that Milan’s midfield could face problems, due to the 3v2 midfield battle: we imagine that Pulisic will have to drop deeper to help his teammates in the middle; Leao, on the other side, will do this less. We wouldn’t be surprised if Conceiçao returned to the four-man defense, the basis for the four season derbies, all positive, writes Gazzetta.
The defences...
Inter reached the milestone of 50 matches this season, between the league and various cups. The Nerazzurri conceded 41 goals, averaging 0.82 per game. Yann Sommer is the king of “clean sheets”: he has kept the goal clean 20 times out of 43. In the Coppa Italia, the goalkeeper is Josep Martinez, but it doesn’t change much: just one goal conceded, in the first leg of the semifinals. Milan 2024-25 has played 48 matches so far and conceded 57 goals, averaging 1.18 per game. The difference with Inter isn’t huge, only a 0.36 disparity. Inter has built its impermeability in the Champions League, conceding just 5 goals in 12 European encounters. In the league, Inzaghi’s team is more permeable, conceding 32 goals in 33 matches. And in the four derbies of 2024-25, the trend is more pronounced, with Inter having already conceded seven goals to Milan this season, not few. Milan’s hope lies in Inter’s domestic carelessness, further evidence of how Inzaghi’s team’s focus is on the Champions League, perhaps the true objective for the Appiano locker room. After all, the scudetto and national cups have already been won…
AC Milan and Inter's attacking departments...
Inter without Marcus Thuram and with Lautaro Martínez forced to push himself once again. Milan with Abraham, promoted to starting center-forward, and Gimenez on the bench, last in the pecking order, overtaken by Jovic. These are the predicted lineups for the derby. The fact that Inzaghi doesn’t rest Lautaro suggests he values the Coppa Italia and wants to keep the Treble dream alive. However, the decision could be read differently: maybe Inzaghi has no choice, he can’t face such an important derby with a duo of Arnautovic and Correa or Taremi. Performance evaluation of Inter’s forwards: Lautaro: exceptional; Thuram: excellent; Arnautovic: good; Correa and Taremi: poor. Not that Milan can claim to be better: Pulisic: excellent performance; Leao: inconsistent; Abraham: improving; Jovic: resilient; Gimenez: indecipherable. The common trait of both Inter and Milan’s attacks is the imbalance, the wide gap between starters and substitutes. Pay attention to the season’s precedents: Pulisic and Abraham, with two goals each, are the top scorers in the four 2024-25 derbies, and that must mean something.
