From the moment he was hired as Milan’s coach, it was clear that Massimiliano Allegri, also because of the team’s needs after two years of defensive struggles, would first focus on rebuilding the Rossoneri’s backline. His main concern has been making sure Milan do not end up as one of the top sides with the most goals conceded during the season. Allegri’s influence is already visible, and the numbers confirm it, even if it is still early and plenty of work remains.
Shots conceded and xG
The figures supporting the idea of a stronger Milan defence were highlighted this morning by La Gazzetta dello Sport. They report that Milan have faced the fewest shots on target in the opening two matchdays: 11 in total. Roma and Napoli come next, both already on 17. On top of this, Milan also have the best data for expected goals (xG) conceded: the probability of an opponent scoring a goal. For Allegri’s men, the figure is 0.5. That makes the defeat against Cremonese sting more, since the two goals were given away on the only two chances their opponents created. To reach these results, Allegri has opted for a three-man defence, with a compact and narrow team that sits deeper compared to previous seasons.
Only the beginning
Two things must be kept in mind. These are only numbers, and we are still at the beginning. While they point to a trend, they are not gospel and need context, since statistics often fail to tell the whole story. Milan experienced this firsthand in their opening defeat. After the international break, the defensive workload will increase. In the next month, before the following break, Milan will face Bologna, Napoli, and Juventus. These big matches will test Allegri’s system far more severely.
