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Roma vs Milan: Three factors that could decide the fixture

Wajih by Wajih
24 January 2026
in Insights, Primo Piano
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Rafael Leao Massimiliano Allegri AC Milan ميلان لياو أليغري

Massimiliano Allegri and Rafael Leao (AC Milan via Getty Images)

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Tomorrow, Sunday 25 January, could truly be a turning point in the balance of this season. Two big matches will be played in quick succession and could either stretch or tighten the gap at the top of the table: Juventus vs Napoli kicks off at 18:00, followed immediately at 20:45 by Roma vs Milan. For the Rossoneri, this can already be considered a first crossroads of the season, for many reasons. There are several ways to read this match, let us look at three of them.

A seasonal crossroads

There is no point beating around the bush, for both Roma and Milan this match could set the course of the season on a very favourable track. With a win, Milan would move seven points clear of the Giallorossi; on the other hand, a victory for Gasperini’s side would see them close to within one point of Milan, edging closer to second place and reshuffling all the cards. The three points could also provide a major boost in confidence for the winning team. It is therefore a truly key match, also in light of what will happen in Turin, with two teams experiencing a similar situation. For Milan, obviously, the focus is on the Champions League: Inter are top of the table, but for now they cannot and must not be Milan’s target, Milan simply have to do their own job.

How are Rafa and Chris?

Today, in his usual pre-match press conference, Max Allegri spoke about the condition of Rafael Leão, who is clearly not playing at 100% of his physical condition, an issue that limits his physical and technical qualities. The Livorno-born coach laid his cards on the table: "There is a bit of inflammation in the adductor/pubic area. It is a minor pain, a bit annoying, he knows how much it bothers him." In the same way, Christian Pulisic, despite an enviable scoring run, has so far had a season marked by knocks and physical issues. The pair expected to start at the Olimpico will, in all likelihood, be these two, and it will be crucial to understand how Rafa and Chris are feeling, players who can make the difference. The positive news is that, compared to other occasions, Allegri will be able to rely during the match on Fullkrug and Nkunku, both of whom are in excellent form.

The Alexis factor

Alexis Saelemaekers could truly be one of the most important themes of the match. The first reason is very simple: to see whether he will start from the first minute, as is likely, and in what condition. The Belgian has once again recovered in record time and will be available to Allegri after the muscular issue he picked up late in the match against Lecce. The coach has complete trust in his wide man, to the point that he has always started him this season. The second reason why Saelemaekers will be crucial, beyond tactical considerations, is the atmosphere: number 56 returns to the stadium that was his home last season and where he was highly appreciated. The affection he felt last year is unlikely to be replicated tomorrow night, also due to some on-pitch incidents that have irritated the Roma supporters. Alexis will need to keep his nerves steady and stay focused for a mature performance, as he has so often managed to do this season.

Rafael Leao and Alexis Saelemaekers AC Milan ميلان ساليماكرز لياو
Rafael Leao and Alexis Saelemaekers (AC Milan via Getty Images)
Tags: Saelemaekers
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Wajih

Wajih

A writer, passionate about football: Serie A and AC Milan in particular. For business inquiries, contact: wajihmzoughi1996 [at] gmail [dot] com

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