Rafa Leao’s career has always been full of contradictions. His best league season in terms of goals, 15, came in 2022-23, when Milan finished fourth, the last spot granting access to the Champions League. Only a year earlier, the team had led the Italian pack in Europe after winning Serie A, yet Rafa had “stopped” at eleven goals, seven of which came in the second half of the season. His decisive contribution earned him the award for the league’s best player.
For Max Allegri, Leao can combine everything: goals and flair, elegance and precision, ruthlessness and talent. Rafa will again be the main figure in Milan’s attack, acting more as a center-forward than Santi Gimenez. The numbers confirm it: Leao, once a winger now moved closer to goal, has already scored three times in four matches, only two of them as a starter in Serie A. Gimenez, a natural striker, remains goalless.
The two will continue as Milan’s front pair. Rafa performs better when he has a partner up front, using support play and space to move freely outside the box. Always with the goal in mind. Max believes he can score another 18, maybe even 20, as pointed out by La Gazzetta dello Sport.
"Leao aiming for 20-25 goals per season? I think he can reach those numbers. He’s growing in form and starting to believe in his qualities as a striker. He must improve inside the box. He’s had good chances but taken few. He needs to be more clinical."
That Rafa is the main reference point is clear from the data. His teammates look for him far more often than Gimenez, who focuses more on movement. Up front, it’s similar to what happens behind with Modric: when the ball goes to Luka, he takes charge. In attack, it goes to Leao. Against Pisa, their latest league match together, Rafa made 35 passes, while Gimenez made only 8. The number 10 handled 64 balls compared to 19 for the number 7 and was fouled five times, against none for his teammate.
After weeks out with injury and a slow, uncertain return, Leao is again a sure presence. His three goals in the last four matches show a striker’s evolution. Two of them came from outside the box, something rare for him. Allegri encouraged him to try, and Leao, improving his aim, responded. The same goes for penalties: his first goal from the spot was the 73rd (out of 74 total) of his Milan career. Until then, he had never approached the spot. Against Fiorentina, Max pointed him toward it. It was not an easy moment, late in the match, the penalty meant victory, but Rafa placed it in the corner with composure.
Leao's numbers
Rafa’s career average is one goal every 243 minutes (74 in 265 total appearances, 17,948 minutes played). The ratio improves when looking at his last three Serie A matches: one goal every 76 minutes. It gets even better this season: one every 61.25 minutes, one goal per hour, with four goals in 245 minutes including the Coppa Italia.
There was a short dip (48 minutes as a substitute against Napoli and Juventus) when the “new” Rafa seemed to relapse into old habits, lazy and inaccurate. But Allegri insists, this is a different Leao.
