Milan travel to Marassi on Sunday fifth in Serie A, seven points behind leaders Lazio and buoyed by a 3-1 derby win over Inter. The advanced metrics from that game tell a less comfortable story, as Milan created 0.5 expected goals to Inter's 1.6. Across the season, Amorim's side have 21 points from just 16.2 expected points (xPts) according to the ATS Quantitative Model.
Genoa arrive on their best run of the season, with four wins in five, including a surprise 2-0 win over Juventus at Marassi. They sit 11th on 13 points.
Milan's back line
Milan have conceded 12 goals from their 11.43 xG in Serie A this season, which works out at 1.14 xG/90 minutes. On the road the figure climbs to 1.21, and they've kept just one clean sheet in five away games. At San Siro, Bologna and Inter created 3.0 xG between them, and Milan let in five.
Amorim's first-choice centre-backs are all fit. Strahinja Pavlović (965 minutes) and Koni De Winter (945) have played almost every minute this season, and Mario Gila has 733.
The problem is depth. Behind those three are Sankhoun Diawara, a 20-year-old with 214 Serie A minutes, and Filippo Terracciano, who has 13. Diawara was already needed on Thursday, and could be called upon again on Sunday.
What Thursday told us
Thursday’s 2-0 home defeat to Ferencváros still told us something about who Amorim trusts. He rested Pavlović for the first time this season to manage his workload, paired De Winter with Diawara in a back four, and kept Gila on the bench until half-time. Explaining the decision, Amorim said the 20-year-old Diawara had “shown he’s up to the task, both as a centre-back and wider.”
The performance was less encouraging. Both goals came from errors and open space. Lenny Joseph scored after third-choice keeper Lorenzo Torriani was closed down from a backpass, then finished a counter that Kristoffer Zachariassen carried from his own half. “We gifted opportunities, made stupid errors,” Amorim said.
His other complaint could prove decisive on Sunday. “Just being better on the second balls would’ve helped,” he said, and second balls are exactly what Genoa play for.
How Genoa will attack
De Rossi has built a side in his image. Genoa play in a physically dominant, direct style and look to get the ball forward early and win second balls. They see just 43.9% of the ball and cross 14.6 times a game, and at Marassi they create a measly 1.06 xG per match.
The obvious aerial target for the hosts is Gila, who has won 45% of his aerial duels against Pavlović's 70.3%. The catch is that Milutin Osmajic, Genoa's main striker, wins only 25.8% of his. Expect Genoa to play for second balls rather than clean headers.
Genoa also pose a threat out wide. Tommaso Baldanzi creates 0.28 xG per 90, Vitinha 0.24 and Junior Messias 0.23, all at or above Osmajic's 0.22. If Milan's wide defenders are pinned and a centre-back has to cover outside, that is where the back line gets stretched.
Where Milan can hurt them
Genoa's defence is busier than their results suggest. They've faced 161 shots, the eighth-most in Serie A, and concede 1.50 xG per game at Marassi.
Gonçalo Ramos is the obvious threat. He's had 25 shots worth 4.72 xG, comfortably the most in the squad, but has scored only twice, the biggest shortfall in Serie A. The chances haven't dried up, either, with the Portuguese forward registering 2.53 xG in the last five gameweeks alone.
Crossing for Ramos might not be the best approach to breaking Genoa down. Leo Østigård clears 7.38 balls per 90 and wins 60% of his aerial duels, and Johan Vásquez wins 66.7%. Milan should do more damage working the ball into the box than hanging it up.
That's where the runners from deeper come in. Adrien Rabiot has 1.47 xG from midfield, second only to Ramos in the squad. Alphadjo Cissè has produced 1.31 xG in just 374 minutes, around 0.32 per 90, and Christian Pulisic, who scored in the derby, adds 1.18. If a chance falls to Diego Moreira, Genoa should worry. He's scored 2.58 goals more than his shots' xGOT, the biggest overperformance in the league.
What to watch
Three questions will decide this game. Can Genoa aim their direct balls at Gila instead of Pavlović? Will Milan's flanks hold up against Baldanzi and Messias? Above all, can Milan's finishing, which has carried them nearly five points past their expected total, keep covering for a defence that gives up more than it should? If Milan lose two of those three battles, their five-point cushion over the xPTS table won't survive Sunday.
For model projections on this fixture and the rest of the round, see the Serie A hub on ATS.io.
