Since the controversial substitution in Lazio-Milan, followed by the outburst toward Pulisic and then the clarification at Milanello, serious questions have been reignited around Rafael Leao. The core issue remains the same: is the Portuguese player still central to the Rossoneri’s project? And above all, should Milan continue to rely on him as their main attacking reference? The definitive answers will come from performances on the pitch, but some data collected so far this season already helps paint a fairly clear picture.
Goals are there, but the collective contribution weighs less
In terms of scoring, Leao remains one of the team’s main attacking references. In the league, he has already reached 9 goals, plus one in the Coppa Italia, placing him at the top of Milan’s scoring charts alongside Pulisic (who is on 8). Compared to last season, his output in front of goal has improved, although his more central role and the penalty-taking duties inevitably affect how this statistic is interpreted. Where a clear drop is noticeable is in chance creation: assists have decreased, highlighting a less consistent involvement in the build-up of attacking play, as relayed via Milan News today.
With Leao, Milan is more unpredictable, but also more exposed
Team statistics confirm a now fairly clear reality: with Leao on the pitch, Milan becomes a more open, more unbalanced side, harder to control, both positively and negatively. The Rossoneri produce fewer xG (1.70 when he plays, 2.16 when he does not) without managing to compensate defensively, where xGA rises (1.32 with him on the pitch, 0.45 without him), along with a noticeable increase in shots conceded. It should be noted that the Portuguese forward has often played against higher-level opponents, but the overall picture still suggests that his presence increases both the team’s attacking potential and its risks. In short, Leao remains a talent capable of shifting the balance, but also a player who forces the team to operate with a higher degree of instability.
