Once upon a time there was a devastating Rafael Leao on the wing, unstoppable in one-on-one situations and decisive in the big nights. Today, however, Milan’s number 10 appears to be a distant relative of the player who dragged the Rossoneri to the 2022 Scudetto and who also shone in the Champions League against opponents such as PSG and Napoli. The chances are still there, but the feeling is that Leao can no longer 'ride the wave': less incisive, less brilliant, less decisive.
Numbers in decline: the dribbling data
As highlighted in today’s edition of 'Il Corriere dello Sport', what best illustrates his current form is a key statistic: dribbling. This season, Leao has attempted 56 dribbles, completing only 24, with a success rate of 42.86%: this is the lowest figure since he has worn the Milan shirt.
The comparison with the past is stark: in the Scudetto-winning season, he attempted 184 dribbles, completing 98 (53.26%). The year before, 70 attempted and 40 completed (57.14%); in his debut season in Serie A the percentage was even 62%. The current drop is clear: fewer attempts, fewer successes, lower effectiveness. A clear sign of a loss of sharpness in the very skill that made him unique.
Formation and role: from winger to striker
Among the mitigating factors is certainly the tactical aspect. Under Massimiliano Allegri, Leao has often been used more centrally, away from his natural area on the left wing.
This change has led him to play with his back to goal, often surrounded by compact defences, limiting his best qualities: pace, open space, and one-on-one situations.
Physical condition and mental factors
It is not only a question of system, however. Leao also appears less sharp physically and mentally. The pubalgia that has affected him for weeks is impacting his performances, but it does not fully explain the decline. The burst of acceleration is missing, as is the quickness, but also that mental lightness that once made him unpredictable.
The whistles from part of the fanbase are also weighing on him: a non-negligible factor for an emotional player who is strongly connected to the Rossoneri environment.
Is Leao's future at Milan uncertain?
Leao’s situation inevitably raises questions at Milan. The Portuguese remains a top-level talent, but his performances have a major influence on the team’s playing system.
The management will have to decide in the summer whether to continue building the project around him or consider different scenarios.
For now, however, the present says he will still start against Atalanta. Allegri continues to trust him. But concrete answers are now needed. Because Milan needs the real Leao, the one who made the difference. And who today seems to be lost.
