AC Milan welcome Atalanta to San Siro on Sunday looking to extend their unbeaten Serie A start. Atalanta's impressive recent record against the Rossoneri, however, suggests a challenging afternoon. AC Milan are favourites with the bookmakers, while comparisons available through the best betting sites highlight a potentially competitive contest in Milan. It will be a match valid for Matchday 7 of the 2026/27 Serie A season, to be played at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan on Sunday 18 October at 18:00 CEST.
Atalanta have recorded three wins and three defeats in their opening six Serie A matches this season. The Bergamo side began with consecutive victories over Sassuolo (2-1) and Bologna (1-0), before suffering three successive defeats against Roma (2-1), Cagliari (2-1) and Juventus (2-0). They returned to winning ways with a 3-1 home victory over Venezia on 12 October, although they have yet to collect a point away from home this season.
Despite that record, the pre-match odds favour the hosts. The latest available prices put Milan at 1.82 to win, with a draw priced at 3.75 and an Atalanta victory at 4.10.
The figures suggest that Milan's stronger start to the league campaign has carried greater weight with bookmakers than Atalanta's recent head-to-head success. Nevertheless, the visitors' record against the Rossoneri adds uncertainty to what might otherwise appear a straightforward fixture.
Milan - Atalanta: what are the probable line-ups?
MILAN (4-4-1-1): Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi; Chukwueze, Modric, Rabiot, Moreira; Pulisic; Gonçalo Ramos. Coach: Amorim.
Suspended: None reported.
Unavailable: Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers.
ATALANTA (4-2-3-1): Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Kolasinac, Zappacosta; Kessie, Ederson; Zalewski, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Krstovic. Coach: Sarri.
Atalanta and Milan statistics
Atalanta have avoided defeat in their last six Serie A meetings with Milan (4 wins, 2 draws), including their three most recent encounters (2 wins, 1 draw). The Bergamo side have scored 11 goals across those six matches, compared with seven for the Rossoneri, and have not lost to Milan in the competition since February 2023.
Milan lost their last two home Serie A matches against Atalanta, suffering a 1-0 defeat on 20 April 2025 followed by a 3-2 loss on 10 May 2026. The last time the Rossoneri defeated the Atalanta team at San Siro in the league was on 26 February 2023, when they secured a 2-0 victory. Milan will therefore be looking to avoid a third consecutive home defeat against Atalanta.
Atalanta have also enjoyed success against Milan during the first half of recent Serie A seasons.
The Nerazzurri won 3-2 on 9 December 2023 and 2-1 on 6 December 2024, before the teams shared a 1-1 draw on 28 October 2025. Atalanta have therefore remained unbeaten in their last three meetings with Milan played during the first half of a league campaign (2 wins, 1 draw).
After three wins and three draws, Milan remain unbeaten in their opening six Serie A matches of the 2026/27 season, collecting 12 points from a possible 18. The Rossoneri have scored 11 goals and conceded five, although their most recent outing ended in a 1-1 draw on 11 October. Amorim's side have also recorded two clean sheets in their opening six fixtures, both coming at San Siro.
Atalanta have won three of their first four home Serie A matches this season, beating their opening opponents 2-1, Bologna 1-0 and Venezia 3-1, with their only home defeat coming against Cagliari (1-2). Away from home, however, the Nerazzurri have lost both matches, falling 2-1 against Roma and 2-0 against Juventus. Milan, meanwhile, have won both of their home league fixtures, scoring five goals without conceding.
Atalanta have both scored and conceded in four of their opening six Serie A matches this season. The Nerazzurri have registered three victories and three defeats, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. Their latest result, a 3-1 victory over Venezia on 12 October, ended a run of three consecutive league defeats against Roma, Cagliari and Juventus. Atalanta have found the net in five of their six league fixtures, but have also conceded in five.
The betting markets also suggest the possibility of goals at both ends, with both teams to score priced at approximately 1.66 and Over 2.5 goals available at around 1.75. Milan are also favoured to open the scoring, with odds of approximately 1.62, further underlining the hosts' status as favourites ahead of Sunday's encounter.
Those figures fit the contrasting defensive records of the two sides. Atalanta have conceded eight goals in six Serie A matches, averaging 1.33 per game, while Milan have allowed five, or 0.83 per match. Both teams have seen both sides score in four of their six league fixtures this season, while five of their last six direct Serie A meetings have also produced goals at both ends.
Atalanta have attempted 81 shots in their opening six Serie A matches this season, averaging 13.5 attempts per game, compared with Milan's 75 shots and average of 12.5. However, the defensive figures show a considerably wider difference: Atalanta have faced 115 opposition shots, an average of 19.2 per match, while Milan have allowed just 55, corresponding to approximately 9.2 per game.
Milan have recorded a shot-conversion rate of 14.7% in Serie A this season, having scored 11 goals from 75 attempts. Atalanta, by contrast, have scored eight goals from 81 shots, corresponding to a conversion rate of approximately 9.9%. Despite attempting six more shots than the Rossoneri, the Nerazzurri have scored three fewer goals, highlighting the difference in finishing efficiency between the two teams.
Nikola Krstovic has scored three goals for Atalanta in Serie A this season, establishing himself as the Nerazzurri's leading league goalscorer after six matches. The Montenegro international scored twice in the 3-1 victory over Venezia on 12 October, finding the net in the sixth and 30th minutes. He also provided the assist for Franck Kessie's opening goal in the fourth minute, contributing directly to all three Atalanta goals in the encounter.
Diego Moreira has scored three goals for Milan so far. The Belgian winger scored twice against Lazio on 12 September, helping the Rossoneri recover from a two-goal deficit to secure a 2-2 draw, before adding another goal in the 3-0 victory over Lecce on 20 September. All three goals came after he entered the field as a substitute, highlighting his immediate attacking impact for Amorim's side.
What the odds suggest ahead of Sunday's fixture:
Milan's superior finishing efficiency and unbeaten league record help explain their position as favourites. The Rossoneri have collected 12 points from their opening six Serie A matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding five. However, Atalanta's impressive recent record against Milan, including four wins and two draws in their last six league meetings, provides reasons to expect a closely contested encounter.
The bookmakers' assessments are broadly consistent. The latest pre-match odds place Milan at 1.82 for a home victory, with a draw priced at 3.75 and an Atalanta win at 4.10. These figures suggest an approximately 52% probability of victory for the Rossoneri after adjusting for the bookmakers' margin, compared with around 25% for a draw and 23% for the visitors. The pricing reflects a shared expectation that Milan have the better chance of victory, without making the outcome a certainty.
The goals markets offer another interesting perspective, with both teams to score priced at approximately 1.71 and Over 2.5 goals available at 1.73. Atalanta have both scored and conceded in four of their six Serie A fixtures this season, while Milan have registered 11 goals from 75 shots, corresponding to a conversion rate of 14.7%. The prospect of goals at both ends is also supported by the recent head-to-head record, with both teams scoring in five of their last six league meetings.
Ultimately, much will depend on whether Amorim's side can impose their attacking quality while containing Nikola Krstovic, Charles De Ketelaere and Atalanta's other forward threats. Milan may have the bookmakers on their side, but recent meetings suggest the Nerazzurri should not be underestimated. Atalanta's 3-1 victory over Venezia in their latest league fixture also demonstrated their ability to respond after three consecutive defeats.
The Rossoneri will therefore welcome Atalanta to San Siro aiming to justify their favourites' status and preserve their unbeaten domestic run, while the visitors will look to build on their return to winning ways and extend their six-match unbeaten sequence against one of Serie A's traditional heavyweights.
Odds reflect published pre-match markets available on 13 October 2026 and are subject to change before kick-off.
