In the first derby of the league this season, Milan took the lead by two goals, both scored by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and this inevitably led Inter to push forward, to take risks to recover the result. However, the comeback was not successful and, despite shooting 18 times and creating 3.1 xG, the Nerazzurri had only halved the disadvantage with Romelu Lukaku's goal.
In the Italian Cup, Inter's superiority in possession and on occasions was even more overwhelming. Once again Milan took the lead with a goal from Ibrahimovic, who was then sent off in the second half. The Rossoneri had created just before they were reduced to ten men, but after the expulsion they limited themselves to contain, to defend the advantage, without being able to take the ball out of their own half of the pitch.
As in the league, Inter have created many promising situations but have not finalised them. In the end, however, the Nerazzurri recovered and won the game thanks to a penalty converted by Lukaku and a free-kick from Eriksen in the 97th minute.
So far, Inter's construction has shown itself to be more solid than the pressing of Milan, which has always tried to direct possession, to force a risky play, adapting its front lines (the forward and the three attacking midfielders behind) to have comfortable exits under pressure. The striker, Ibrahimovic, presses the central defender, de Vrij, the two wingers, namely Saelemaekers and Leão, starters in both derbies this season, press the side defenders (Skriniar and Bastoni, who however in both derbies has been replaced by Kolarov), the attacking midfielder (Calhanoglu) marks the central one (Brozovic).
Usually, Barella opens to the right, a movement that may not bring him to the most comfortable area of the pitch to keep the action going, but which often serves to open central passing spots towards the strikers. Although it gets wide, Inter's system still gives Barella many options for the next play. The comfortable pass horizontally to the outside, the diagonal pass to a striker, or the change of play on the opposite outside, which is usually the player with the most space to receive.
In short, if the front lines of pressure allow Inter to exit the defense, the AC Milan stretching between the half of the pitch and the defensive frontline is always not enough, because there are only two players, the two midfielders find themselves in too much space. Inter have often accentuated this advantage by widening the field to defend, with game changes or in any case by moving the ball quickly from one side to the other, always being able to count on the two wide-open wards.
However, Inter does not need to always find the free man in midfield behind the front lines of Milan. They can also choose to go straight to attack and then rely on their duels. It is an equally safe solution, because Lukaku has always made Romagnoli suffer and also Lautaro Martínez can send Kjaer into crisis as he did in the first leg of the championship.
Milan also obviously have the comfortable support on Ibrahimovic, but it is an alternative that lately works little and does not give the same advantages that Inter can count on, given that the Rossoneri would have to overload the central area more consistently to engage the three Inter central defenders, and thus discover one side of their attacking front.
The most advantageous plays for Milan are those from right to left, that is when they can lean on the right back at the beginning of the action and create spaces on the opposite side for the initiatives of Theo Hernández or a winger.
In both derbies this season for AC Milan, they mainly tried to move from right to left. From both sides the outside attacking midfielders, then on the right one of the two midfielders opened to keep the midfielder busy and free the full-back. That area could also be overloaded by the movements in support of the central attacking midfielder and Ibrahimovic.
If on the right Milan can move the ball more comfortably, it is on the left that they have more chances of finding the decisive plays, with the initiatives of Hernández and who will play in front of him between Leão or Rebic.
To limit Inter's dribble and not disunite the lines, the Rossoneri can perhaps adapt their pressing by keeping the wingers a little closer to the midfielders, to better cover the center of the field and further back, to contain Lukaku.
Tomori can be useful, the defender who most of all can hold on to a physical level when the Belgian charges from behind, and who has the speed to keep up with Lukaku if he turns towards the goal. However, it would be a surprising choice, because Pioli would have to give up his starting couple formed by Kjaer and Romagnoli.
However, it would not be the first time that the Rossoneri coach made a surprise move in a derby. A year ago, precisely in the return match in the league against Inter, Pioli had in fact passed to 4-2-3-1, laying the foundations for the great results of the following months. Perhaps Milan need another intuition to turn the confrontation with Inter, which comes at the most delicate moment of the season, to their advantage.
The result is not decisive for the standings, but the Rossoneri need to regain confidence and morale at a time when things do not turn out as they would like. This was reported by Sport.Sky.it
