Milan's Champions League hopes are shattered once again and become slimmer after last night's loss against Bologna at the Renato Dall'Ara stadium.
With another poor performance, the Rossoneri let Bologna come back in the rescheduled match from October’s league fixture and, unless there is an extraordinary turnaround, bid farewell to their European dreams.
Missing out on the next edition of the Champions League would have a significant impact on Milan’s finances.
The Rossoneri have not failed to qualify for the competition for four years now, but within the growth trajectory set by the club’s ownership, such a setback could lead to different decisions regarding market investments and squad adjustments in the summer.
But how much would missing out on the Champions League next season weigh on Milan? What impact would it have?
Financial impact: The cost of missing the Champions League
From an economic perspective, failing to qualify for the 2025/26 Champions League could cost Milan approximately €40 million upfront—the minimum revenue the club was expected to generate for the 2024/25 season, according to estimates from Calcio e Finanza. These are conservative figures and likely to be revised upwards. Just consider that the Rossoneri, after being eliminated in the playoffs by Feyenoord this season, still earned €60 million.
A similar figure has been officially confirmed by Juventus in their financial report for the first half of the 2024/25 season. This represents a significant portion of club revenue, and the absence of such resources would inevitably be felt. To this, one must also add stadium revenues from the four group-stage home matches. While this season’s data is not yet available, in the previous edition, Milan’s ticket sales from the Champions League amounted to €18.7 million. Based on this, a reasonable estimate for next season would be between €15 million and €20 million, depending on the prestige of the opponents.
These losses—totaling an estimated €75 million to €80 million, assuming at least a playoff qualification—could only be partially offset by participation in the Europa League or Conference League. However, these competitions generate significantly lower revenues that cannot compare to those of Europe’s premier club tournament.
Milan’s Revenues Without the Champions League: The Indirect Consequences
The absence from the Champions League would also have “indirect” economic effects. A season in “purgatory” would impact the Rossoneri club's UEFA ranking, which plays a key role in determining a portion of the tournament’s revenue distribution, thus influencing future participation.
Moreover, the current Champions League edition and the next three will determine the rankings for qualification to the 2029 Club World Cup. Missing a year of Champions League football would mean losing out on valuable ranking points, forcing Milan to rely on rivals slipping up or having to win the Champions League itself to secure a place.
It is worth noting that Juventus will participate in the 2025 Club World Cup despite missing a year of Champions League football. However, they only qualified with a narrow margin over their competitors. A continued presence in UEFA’s elite competition would almost guarantee a spot in the second edition of FIFA’s expanded Club World Cup.
Source: Calcio é Finanza
