If you're wondering whether AC Milan can mount a genuine title challenge in 2025/26, the numbers from last season paint a pretty clear picture. The Rossoneri's struggles against top-eight opponents weren't just bad luck; they were statistically significant weaknesses that Massimiliano Allegri must address if Milan wants to compete for the Scudetto.
The ugly reality of last season's stats:
You do not need to look far to understand why Milan's 2024/25 campaign failed to meet expectations. Their record against direct rivals tells the whole story: a mere 32% of total points available versus teams that finished in the top eight. That is not title-winning form, that is mid-table mathematics.
Dividing their seasonal performance, Milan averaged a 60% winning percentage in all Serie A matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and conceding 0.8 per match. Good but not great numbers, not championship-winning numbers. Compare that with the recent champions who have typically had in excess of 70% winning percentages, and you'll see the ground Milan needs to cover.
The home form at San Siro was some comfort, with Milan winning 70% of their points at home. Even this shining home record could not, however, obscure their away troubles, where they dropped crucial points against teams they genuinely should've overcome. When you're fighting with the likes of Inter and Juventus, every point is crucial, and Milan left too many on the table.
Fixture congestion: where championships are made or broken...
Looking ahead to 2025/26, Milan's fixture list presents both opportunities and banana skins that can make or ruin their season. The first few weeks are particularly insightful, with Bologna (Matchday 3), Napoli (Matchday 5), and Juventus (Matchday 6) all coming in close succession.
This front-loaded schedule isn't necessarily bad news if you're optimistic about Allegri's tactical preparations. Starting tough means Milan won't have the luxury of easing into the season; they'll need to hit peak performance immediately. Historically, teams that perform well in their first encounters against top-six opposition maintain that momentum throughout the campaign.
The derby fixtures are particularly vital: November 23rd away to Inter, then March 8th at home. These games have a habit of swinging title races, and Milan's recent record in the Derby della Madonnina has been patchy at best. They'll have to significantly improve their big-game mentality.
With such a demanding fixture list, it comes as no surprise that BookiesNotOnGamstop are already running the numbers on Milan's title hopes, both their difficult fixture list and their margin for improvement. The early odds reflect the statistical reality: Milan are outsiders, but not without hope.
The Allegri Effect: What the numbers say...
Coaching impacts in Serie A typically take 6-8 matches to be completely sensed, according to tactical analysis stats. Allegri's return to Milan adds experience but also poses the question of tactical flexibility. His second Juventus stint showed he can organize to defend; Juve conceded just 0.7 goals per game in his final season there.
But can Allegri maintain Milan as a threat going forward while tightening up at the back? The key is balance. Serie A title-winning teams tend to need to score at least 80 goals and concede fewer than 35. Milan scored 75 last year, but conceded 42; those defensive numbers need to be improved upon drastically.
Allegri's tactical adjustments must come in transitions and set-piece defense, where Milan lost 23% of their points last season. Margins of thinness, but in a competitive league like Serie A, such fine details separate champions from also-rans.
