Who risks seeing witches on Halloween night?
That is how La Gazzetta dello Sport chose to start its article when discussing the derby.
To answer that question, well, Milan more than anyone, starting at -7. Ruben Amorim was still swearing yesterday that he was aiming for the league title, but at -10 he would struggle to repeat it. It is true that on February 5, 2022, Pioli also risked slipping to -10, then Giroud turned around and we know how it ended. The problem is that the last time Gonçalo Ramos turned around and scored from open play in the league, people were at the beach (August 28). Amorim will try anyway: trick and league title. But Cristian Chivu, born in the land of vampires and comfortable on frightening nights, intends to sink his teeth into his neck, to plunge the Devil into the depths, continue his record-breaking run and break the Milanese curse: no Nerazzurri victories in the last 7 derbies, no goals in the last 3. It will be a night of chills. Let's cross the pitch to understand how it will go.
Gila's return is important, but recovering defensive solidity will be even more important: Milan have conceded 4 more goals than a year ago, 6 in their last two home matches, as many as they had conceded in the previous 29. Not exactly a bunker. Moving from Allegri's low block to Amorim's more proactive football came at a price, okay, but it is not as though the Devil have been pressing ferociously so far... This is demonstrated by the comparison with Inter, who maintain a much higher defensive line (54.7-48.5 m), steal more balls in the final third of the pitch (41-28) and take more shots following attacking recoveries (13-7). Milan continue to sit compactly before playing vertically and running fast. The truth: too many goals conceded through individual errors in their fortress, often from set pieces. Tonight they will have to limit them and lock things down. Amorim knows this well, if it is true that he will prefer the more defensive Diawara to the attack-minded Estupinan and Bartesaghi. In effect, four central defenders in a line, facing the best attack in the league (25 goals, 7 more than the Rossoneri). A dam. Tonight, on this night of ghosts, Marcus Thuram's chains will rattle loudly. He is in overwhelming form, having scored in his last 7 home matches. Without Lautaro, he is the frightening opponent. Alongside Tikus (Thuram) will be Pio Esposito, despite his difficult spell. Let's move up to midfield.
Rabiot the Key:
Here too, Amorim can count on a revitalising return, that of Adrien Rabiot, the team's joint top scorer with Cisse (4 goals). Note: Inter's top scorers are Thuram (5) and Lautaro (4), forwards. At Milan, the midfielders score. This is the Rossoneri's centre of power, where Ballon d'Or winner Modric rules and where the counterattacks that end in goals originate. It is a team better at running than at creating the final pass, as the statistic for touches in the opposition penalty area mercilessly demonstrates: Thuram 65, Ramos, often unreachable, almost half that (37). Amorim faces difficult choices in this department. The most tried-and-tested option on the eve of the match: a 4-3-3 with Musah and Rabiot on either side of Modric, and a front three of Moreira-Ramos-Pulisic. Fewer doubts for Chivu, who has a well-established midfield and, in general, the most systematically organised team in the league. But that does not mean there are no problems. Against the far-from-galactic Venezia, Inter allowed 6 dangerous transitions; against Roma there had been 7. In the middle, whether because of excessive enthusiasm in pressing or laziness in tracking back, gaps in midfield protection have often appeared, with opponents breaking into spaces emptied out like Halloween pumpkins. Extremely dangerous to do this against runners like Moreira, Pulisic and Rabiot. The Frenchman, who already hurt Inter on the counterattack as a Juventus player (a goal and an assist for Kostic), could become a decisive factor in the derby. Let's advance into the final third of the pitch.
Pulisic Captain America:
Despite having conceded one goal fewer than a year ago (10-11), this Inter side appear more vulnerable, as shown by the increase in expected goals against. This is due to dips in form (Akanji, Bastoni, Bisseck...) and the resulting individual errors, but also to less effective pressing which, as mentioned, has allowed opponents to run freely. The decline in attacking ball recoveries is significant evidence. Chivu, therefore, like Amorim, has a defence to fine-tune and, for tonight, also has selection problems, because Carlos Augusto, the player in the best form, has been weakened by the flu, Bisseck is declining in form, and Dimarco, a new father, has missed some training. Chivu will have to choose two of these three. Among the possible combinations is also Bastoni playing centrally. The Nerazzurri supporters are still waiting for the real Dimarco. For now, his crosses have decreased (from 4.1 to 2.7), as have the chances he creates (from 2.3 to 1.7). The derby atmosphere could make him flourish again, the only Milanese player on the pitch. Gonçalo Ramos is also strongly counting on the derby atmosphere and a night of magic to score his third league goal. We have mentioned his difficulties in making himself available to his teammates, but we should add that he does not hide and does a great deal of work: 14 balls recovered (Thuram 4, Lautaro 5, Pio 8), 21 lay-offs (Thuram 7, Lautaro 8, Pio 13). All that remains is for him to find the net. But if the ghost Milan fear most is Thuram, Inter's is called Pulisic, who decided the penultimate derby, scored in the one that stopped the bleeding of 6 defeats and also struck in the Super Cup. He knows the art of hiding between the lines and striking from the attacking midfield area, something Inter's 3-5-2 often struggles with. Pulisic has said that as a child in Pennsylvania, on Halloween, he did not dress up as Captain America, but as a footballer. He will do so again tonight. To frighten.
