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Gazzetta: Rafael Leao no longer shoots on goal – An analysis on the player’s situation

Wajih by Wajih
31 January 2024
in News, Primo Piano
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Rafael Leao AC Milan

Rafael Leao reacts during Serie A 2023/24 match between AC Milan and Bologna FC at San Siro Stadium. Final score; Milan 2:2 Bologna. (Photo by Fabrizio Carabelli/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

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At a certain point, Rafa Leao tried to sway Pioli to his side. Once off the field, he whispered a sentence to the coach that hides a very specific request: "Coach, I'll take the next penalty."

An idea for the upcoming match against Frosinone, but also an implicit message to his coach, who is now dredging the river for ideas to get him back to scoring in the league. Rafa's last goal in Serie A dates back to September 23, against Verona, before a long goal drought that led him to shake the net "only" in the Coppa Italia and the Champions League.

The spark against PSG was decisive, the performance one of the best of his career, but in Serie A, the goalless days have risen to 128. Fourteen matches, 1012 minutes. There are two paths. On one side is Pioli. Before the Bologna match, he spoke of Leao as a football artist, a genius, one who, despite the goal drought, works for the team and delivers assists, creates numerical superiority. A different Rafa, but still useful.

On the other hand, there are the numbers: the Portuguese has returned to shoot on target after almost three months. It hadn't happened since Napoli-Milan on October 29. After fifteen minutes, he targeted the man, accelerated on the wing as he does, and unleashed a left shot on Skorupski. A fact that makes you think. You're a left winger, you've scored thirty goals in the last two years, and you haven't shot on target for three months? Sofascore data says that in the last twelve games, Rafa has attempted to hit the goal fifteen times.

Nine of these shots went high above the crossbar. He produced two assists, yes, but the goal crisis is evident, masked by a good performance by the entire team. Milan has not lost in the league since December 9, almost two months. Since then, they have recorded five wins and two draws (including one against Salernitana). They have conceded seven goals but scored 17. Pioli boasts the second-best attack in Serie A with 43 goals and the eighth-best defense with 25 goals conceded. Considering the xG conceded, Milan is the tenth worst defense with 39 xG.

A rollercoaster. Some data. When it comes to dribbling and quality plays leading to a goal-scoring opportunity, Leao is always at the top of Serie A. He currently ranks sixth for successful one-on-one situations - ahead of him are Soulé, Kvaratskhelia, Banda, Laurientè, and Ebosele – first for big chances along with Kostic, eighth for key passes, eleventh for fouls suffered, and third for successful dribbles per game (1.50).

The assist count is also excellent, with six in the season, averaging three potential winning passes per game. However, when approaching the goal, the numbers drop: Leao has an average of 0.25 shots on target per game. Among the lowest for offensive wingers in Serie A. The Expected Goals, i.e., expected goals, hover around 1.25. He is certainly a new Leao, more mature in terms of teamwork and successful touches, but less effective in terms of goals.

With each passing game, the burden on the shoulders of a boy who smiles while running increases. The title of his book says a lot about him. It's called "Smile." Rafa can't wait to show it again in Serie A.

Source: Gazzetta dello Sport website

READ MORE | Capello: "Milan had the best midfield. Now, no almost one has remained"
Rafael Leao AC Milan
AC Milan's Rafael Leao (Getty Images)
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Wajih

Wajih

A writer, passionate about football: Serie A and AC Milan in particular. For business inquiries: Wajihmzoughi1996@gmail.com

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